Bitcoin Trades Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis; Analyst Sees Breakeven Selling

Bitcoin is trading below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. In an X post, he described that basis as the average purchase price of coins held for less than 155 days. As of Aug. 8, 2026, bitcoin traded at $64,952 while the STH realized price was $67,523. The gap between price and realized price came to $2,571, leaving the spot price 3.8% below that level and marking the tightest spread since July 21. Adler also noted that bitcoin closed below the STH realized price on 279 of the past 284 days. He said this time probably will not be an exception. Short-term holders, in his view, will start selling into the market to exit around breakeven. That outlook is based on the gap that remains despite recent tightening. The data, posted on X and carried by ChainCatcher, focuses on the average entry point of bitcoin owners whose holding period is shorter than 155 days.